Analyzing Bitcoin’s Current Cycle: Analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino’s Words of Caution
Delivering a thoughtful message to the crypto community, technical expert Tony “The Bull” Severino warns investors against drawing parallels between Bitcoin’s current market cycle and the renowned 2017 bull run. Amid Bitcoin’s consolidation between $81,000 and $84,500, indicators hint at a potential peak, prompting Severino’s discerning evaluation.
Decoding the Stochastic Oscillator
At the core of Severino’s assessment lies the stochastic oscillator, a key momentum tool aiding traders in gauging asset overbought or oversold states based on recent price trends. Analyzing Bitcoin through monthly candlesticks, the oscillator unveils enduring momentum patterns stretching back to 2013, encompassing significant market cycles. Severino notes a striking resemblance between the current oscillator behavior since early 2025 and the downturn witnessed in 2017.
Severino underlines the oscillator reading currently hovering near 60, akin to corrections in the 2017 bull market. Despite this, he emphasizes the absence of the bullish vigor seen at Bitcoin’s 2017 peak, drawing a parallel instead to the start of the 2018 bear market. Cautioning against simplistic optimistic viewpoints, Severino warns of risks associated with potentially entering a correction phase akin to 2018, marked by a dramatic 49% monthly decline.
Market Landscape and Recent Price Signals
Recent Bitcoin market movements haven’t favored the cryptocurrency, indicating reduced buying interest among short-term holders amidst prolonged consolidation. On-chain data hints at this hesitancy potentially dampening bullish sentiment. Realized price models suggest an extended correction period ahead, adding to the recovery challenges.
Despite headwinds, Bitcoin remains resilient, holding above $80,000 even amid market turbulence following US President Donald Trump’s tariff proposals. While traditional equities like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 faced downturns, Bitcoin showed decoupling tendencies, surging past $83,000. This hints at evolving dynamics in cryptocurrency’s interaction with wider market conditions.
As per the latest data, Bitcoin’s current trading price stands around $83,693.
Wrap-Up
In essence, Tony Severino’s prudent view sheds light on distinct differences between Bitcoin’s current trajectory and the 2017 bull run. By leveraging the stochastic oscillator, he stresses the importance of considering potential corrective phases over simplistic optimistic comparisons. As Bitcoin navigates intricate market conditions, investors are urged to remain watchful, leveraging technical cues and market insights to steer their strategies wisely.
