Positive Projections for Crypto Markets in H2 2025, According to Coinbase Research

Introduction

Coinbase Research has recently published a report indicating a positive outlook for cryptocurrency markets in the second half of 2025, fueled by enhanced macroeconomic conditions, rising corporate engagement with digital assets, and clearer regulatory guidance.

Expert Insights

The report points out a significant change in economic indicators, particularly the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker, which has increased to 3.8% quarter-over-quarter as of early June. This represents a major revision from previous forecasts and is likely to boost investor sentiment. Coinbase notes, “The expected Federal Reserve rate reductions alongside a shift to less aggressive trade policies are reducing fears of a recession.”

Market Context

After a challenging first quarter marked by a minor contraction in U.S. GDP and trade disruptions, the current economic situation looks significantly more promising. The diminishing influence of the dollar, paired with rising inflation concerns, could enhance Bitcoin’s desirability. Conversely, altcoins may encounter difficulties unless driven by specific triggers, such as the greenlighting of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or enhancements to their individual protocols.

Corporations are increasingly integrating cryptocurrencies into their financial strategies, aided by a regulatory change allowing “mark-to-market” accounting for digital assets, leading to higher demand but also introducing systemic risks. Firms using convertible debt to acquire cryptocurrencies might encounter liquidity challenges and compelled sell-offs should refinancing options reduce.

Regulatory Developments

The report also highlights changes in the regulatory landscape. A key development is the Senate’s approval of the bipartisan GENIUS Act, which focuses on stablecoins and is now moving to the House. Additionally, the CLARITY Act seeks to define the roles of the SEC and CFTC in overseeing digital assets. If enacted, this could offer essential regulatory clarity for both issuers and investors.

Moreover, the SEC is reviewing over 80 cryptocurrency ETF applications, which encompass proposals for multi-asset funds, staking, and alternative coins. Initial rulings could be revealed as early as July, with final outcomes anticipated by October.

Impact Analysis

In summary, Bitcoin is well-placed to capitalize on favorable macroeconomic and structural influences in the latter half of the year. Meanwhile, the prospects for altcoins may rely on their capacity to maneuver through a more complex regulatory and liquidity environment. The ongoing updates to rules and expectations regarding crypto markets will also significantly influence investment strategies moving forward.

Conclusion

To conclude, the report from Coinbase Research highlights a promising outlook for cryptocurrencies in the second half of 2025. With a more favorable economic atmosphere, increasing corporate adoption, and advancing regulatory frameworks, Bitcoin is poised to thrive, while altcoins may require additional impetus from key developments to gain traction.