Bitcoin’s Price Outlook Tied to 2024 US Presidential Election
Analyzed by Bernstein, the upcoming U.S. presidential election is poised to have a notable impact on the dynamics of Bitcoin pricing. The firm suggests that a victory for former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election might propel Bitcoin to historic highs of $80,000 to $90,000. Conversely, should Kamala Harris win, it could trigger a downturn, potentially pushing Bitcoin towards levels around $40,000.
Gautam Chhugani, Global Head of Digital Assets at Bernstein, highlighted in a communication with Decrypt the likelihood of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations in response to the political landscape. Chhugani explained, “We anticipate Bitcoin’s reactions to election probabilities, turning more positive with advantageous Trump odds and remaining range-bound if the race is too close to predict accurately.”
Context is vital; Trump’s campaign has shown a more favorable disposition towards cryptocurrencies in an attempt to rally support from digital asset advocates. In contrast, Harris has adopted a more cautious stance towards digital assets, potentially signaling reduced regulatory backing for the sector if she secures the presidency. This divergence in approaches could have long-term implications for the cryptocurrency market.
Bernstein’s findings also draw attention to the prevailing market sentiment, highlighted by trends on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform. Traders have notably increased their bets on a Trump victory. The report notes, “Although not definitive, the odds have significantly tilted in favor of Trump. This implies traders are bracing for a Trump win and its subsequent impact, notably in the crypto industry.” Currently, Polymarket shows a 7% lead for Trump, often seen as a reflection of market sentiment.
It is worth noting that Polymarket does not include U.S. participants and its blockchain foundation may introduce a bias in its user base. Nevertheless, Bernstein is confident that the considerable liquidity, with over $1.5 billion in bets, indicates authentic financial stakes rather than mere partiality. The analysts stated, “Bette
